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The first few days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not go down how President Putin or the rest of the world might have imagined. Some blame Russia’s intelligence apparatus for its surprising failure to quash the Ukrainian military early on. But with Putin sitting on top of a spy machine that feeds its leader only information they think he wants to hear, the outcome isn’t as shocking.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan examines the decline of the Russian intelligence apparatus within the context of its history, geography, and invasion of Ukraine. He argues it’s only a matter of time until their pro-Kremlin bot farms — used to spread disinformation — will also lose their effectiveness.
Excerpted from Peter’s May 4 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
The Soviets once boasted the most intricate and prolific human intelligence network in the world, but things have taken a turn since the end of the Cold War. So why can’t Putin’s Russia keep pace with its predecessors?
If someone were tasked with designing the worst geographical region known to man, it would likely resemble the Soviet space. In a place like that, you must be able to conquer, convert, and control anyone in between you and the natural geographic barriers you need. So human intelligence wasn’t a nice-to-have; it was the only way to survive.
Once the Cold War ended, the Russians were left with the shell of a system; still operational but only a shadow of what it once was. Most with this specialized training moved into the private sector or more powerful government positions under Putin.
Now I’m never going to say that Russian intelligence sucks, but it’s taken some blows that will require a long recovery. I’m mainly concerned about the misinformation-pushing bots that litter the internet.
