Commentary
-
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Hey everyone. Hello from Colorado where it’s 50 degrees and we just got a half a foot of snow because you know, Colorado. Today I wanted to talk about the next chapter of negotiations between the Russians and the world. It’s going to involve the Turks and the Germans specifically. Now the war in Ukraine began about a month ago there was this lightning shift in Berlin that upended 75 years of an attempt to make nice with the Russians.
And if you look back through Russian -German history, this is just part of the pattern. The, Germans trying to find a way to work with the Russian, it falls apart and there’s conflict. And then that falls apart and they try to make nice. And then that falls apart and there’s another conflict, and over and over and over again. The Germans are wow, changing their mind on the things very quickly.
So on day three of the war, they doubled their defense budget, which is, you know, impressive. But now the Germans are once again the laggards, saying when it comes to sanctions, quite accurately that… if they were to cut their dependence on Russian crude overnight, that their economy would collapse. And they’re probably right.
So instead of getting energy sanctions on a firm level, everyone is starting to beat the Germans about the head and shoulders and try to get them to go back to where they were just a couple of weeks ago. This is going to continue and the Russians are gonna do everything they can to take advantage of that situation. Now, whether it’s because of insurance, indemnification, fallthroughs or dock workers or ship captains refusing to work with Russian cargo or because of sanctions or because of boycotts, it doesn’t matter what happens. Maybe partisan activity…
All of the piped energy that goes to Europe, including to Germany, is going to be disrupted in the next few months. But there are a pair of pipelines known as Blue Stream, which goes to Turkey and Nordstream, which goes to Germany. They’re natural gas pipelines, and they go under the sea directly to their consuming countries. So the Russians know that these will not be disrupted by anything shy of sanctions from Germany and Turkey specifically.
So if we’re entering a world where something like 4 million barrels of Russian oil goes offline and something like 7 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas goes offline, but the Russians can go to the Turks and the Germans and say very clearly and very specifically that we can keep your lights on and only your lights, but in exchange, you have to pull out of the NATO Alliance that is opposing us in Ukraine.
Will it work? I don’t know. I give it a 50-50 chance. If you had asked me the day before the war, I would’ve said a hundred percent it was gonna work. But the Germans are in play for the first time in 75
Years.
Whether that’s comfortable or not, of course all depends upon your read of history and what part of the world you happen to be in.
But this is the next big crisis for the war, for the western alliance and for the outcome of where Turkey and Germany fall. Because if Turkey and Germany refused to participate in actions against the Russians in Ukraine, then NATO doesn’t function because you take the two single biggest countries in the European theater out of the alliance and turn them from empowering Western intervention to stopping it…and the Russians can do with Ukraine as they will. All right, that’s it for me until next time, take care.
-
Hurricane Helene hits US coast, Appalachia and beyond
Hurricane Helene hit Florida and Georgia overnight between Sept. 26 and 27 as a Category 4 hurricane, and accompanying storms will continue reaching deeper into the continental United States today. Dangerous flash flooding from the hurricane, known as storm surge, was some of the worst flooding that the Tampa Bay area has ever seen, and… -
Israel holds upper hand against Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iran
On Wednesday, Sept. 25, Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv in retaliation for Israel’s explosive pager attack that blew up devices across Lebanon. Although Israel’s defense systems intercepted the surface-to-surface missile, the attempted strike on Tel Aviv marked a significant escalation by Hezbollah. Since the siege on Gaza began, shortly after the Oct. 7, 2023,… -
The Sinaloa Cartel civil war
Fears of a civil war within the Sinaloa Cartel are growing as violence between competing factions within the cartel continues. The Mexican Army has dispatched around 600 elite troops to Sinaloa to help quell those fears, in addition to roughly 2,200 regular soldiers and National Guard. Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor… -
New Ukrainian weapons hit Russia where it hurts
Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian ammunition depot, triggering a massive explosion that was captured on camera. According to the Ukrainian military, 2,000 tons of munitions had arrived at the depot before the attack. Over the past two years, Ukraine has significantly increased its domestic drone production, allowing it to scale up attacks on military… -
Weighing social costs vs. economic benefits on immigration
Global human migration is one of the defining elements of our current historical era, according to the United Nations. Migrants face both the incentives to leave — forced out by climate change, crime and corruption, extreme poverty or violence — and incentives for where to go, based on available job opportunities and so on. Migration…
Latest Stories
-
ESA’s Hera spacecraft launches to help advance planetary defense
-
Cyberattack hits US water utility, affecting 14 million customers
-
AI tools consume up to 4 times more water than estimated
-
Presidential race tight with 4 weeks left until election
-
Mega Millions raising ticket prices, improving odds to win
Popular Opinions
-
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Latest Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum. We hope these different voices will help you reach your own conclusions.
The opinions published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Latest Commentary
We know it is important to hear from a diverse range of observers on the complex topics we face and believe our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions.
The commentaries published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical StrategistIsrael holds upper hand against Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iran
The Sinaloa Cartel civil war
New Ukrainian weapons hit Russia where it hurts
Dr. Frank Luntz
Pollster and Political Analyst‘A bipartisan problem’: Americans debate immigration policy
‘I’ve learned nothing’: Young undecided voters on debate, election
‘I don’t trust Kamala’: Why some Black men are voting Trump