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As Russia and Ukraine prepare for negotiations that the world hopes could bring an end to the month of intense violence in Eastern Europe, the country hosting the negotiations, Turkey, could soon play a key role in Vladimir Putin‘s chess game against NATO. The Turks and Germany could play huge roles in whatever NATO delivers as a response to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, as both are dependent on Russian energy. The Germans have been hesitant to jump on the economic sanctions bandwagon against Moscow because their country would be in dire straits without Russian oil being pumped into the country.
Putin is aware of this, and he also knows that he has two natural gas pipelines that run below the sea into Turkey and Germany which give him tremendous leverage as he tries to avoid NATO sanctions that could further cripple the Russian economy. And he could give those two nations an ultimatum.
So if we’re entering a world where something like 4 million barrels of Russian oil goes offline and something like 7 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas goes offline, but the Russians can go to the Turks and the Germans and say very clearly and very specifically that we can keep your lights on and only your lights, but in exchange, you have to pull out of the NATO alliance that is opposing us in Ukraine.
Will it work? I don’t know. I give it a 50-50 chance. If you had asked me the day before the war, I would’ve said a hundred percent it was gonna work. But the Germans are in play for the first time in 75 years.
If it happens, it would kneecap NATO and would mean the Ukraine war will not come to an end anytime soon.
