Hi, everyone, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from a snowy Colorado morning. There are two recent things that have gone down in the maritime theater in Ukraine that I think are worth stitching together. The first is that around midnight of March 4, the fifth, a patrol vessel Russian patrol vessel, the name escapes me was sunk by a bunch of UAVs. Water drones. Basically, the reason this matters is it happened a lot further away from the places where most of the drones have hit Russian water assets in the past. The Ukrainians really don’t have much of a coastline anymore. It’s really just far western Ukraine, on the west side of the Crimean peninsula. And so when vessels are used to there, the they become in range of these UAV swarms that the Ukraine has been launching with greater frequency. But that’s not where this patrol ship was. It was on the far eastern side of Ukraine near the Kerch Strait bridge. So that’s about 300 miles from any potential launch point. And that meant that UAVs had to cruise by pretty much every naval asset the Russians had in order to get them to where they needed to go. So either they’re getting quieter, or there’s a lot of more holes all along the Russians detection perimeter or both. Also, it’s in the facility, the bridge. So if you want to say that this is a shaping operation, in order to strike the bridge directly, you know, it’s a reasonable concern. The other thing that’s unique is this is a relatively new vessel, a patrol ships are pretty small, but designed for anti insurgency clearly not doing that job very well. And if there is a type of vessel that’s going to be decent at shooting down drones, it’s going to be something like this that’s relatively small in the first place, so we can shoot down into the water. And apparently, none of that worked. And the thing sank, the second vessel to go down went down a couple of weeks ago, I believe it was February 14 15th. And it was landing ship. Now landing ships are used to deliver military cargo to areas that don’t necessarily have excellent port facilities, the idea is you can just kind of pull up to the shore, drop off everything you need, and then take off again, the reason that these are really important in any sort of operation is because it means you’re not beholden to civilian or military infrastructure, you don’t have to wait for a port slot to be available. And if you’re at a port slot, obviously the enemy knows where you are. Also, you know, you’re not talking about things like cranes being required, you can just roll right off. The Russians brought a half a dozen of these into the Black Sea just before the war. This is one of the reasons why the folks the military community were pretty sure the war was going to happen this time. And the Russians began with about a half a dozen in theater, so 12 total. Now this was the fifth one that was sunk it was called the scissor Colton off holidays for pronunciation. Anyway, when the sales are went down, they basically down to 50%. And with that, that means the Russians are dependent on either civilian transports, which do not do well in a war zone at all, or a single thread of supply coming across the Kerch Strait bridge that is now no longer being transported by rail for the most part, mostly by truck. You take these two together, the Russians are losing the ability to reinforce Crimea by the water. And the Ukrainians are demonstrated that they’re able to strike targets in the vicinity of the bridge, which would inhibit the Russian ability to supply by land and of Crimea loses the ability to supply then this war changes very quickly, regardless of what happens with the Ukrainian army and the US Congress. Now, there’s obviously lots lots lots more going on there, and the fog of war remains as ever in place. But it does seem that the Ukrainians have adapted to the lower flows of equipment from the United States by getting more creative with their military tactics, and going after vulnerable targets, in this case, naval assets that no one before the war would have ever thought were the vulnerable side of the Russian war machine. So we’re probably going to see more and more of this going on because while the Ukrainians are having a hard time getting howitzers, they’re having no problem getting jet skis, and basically, they modified jet skis and things like them in order to make these maritime drones. So the pressure on the naval aspect of the Russian assault, as all of a sudden kind of surprisingly emerged as a critical component in the near term. As for what’s going on on land, that is largely a function of the US Congress and we will address that in the next video.
Related
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical Strategist
View Video LibraryCommentary
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Japan’s navy gets an upgrade
Yesterday
Peter Zeihan
How could RFK Jr. impact 2024 election?
Friday
Peter Zeihan
Global warming won’t impact Russian-Chinese shipping
Thursday
Peter Zeihan
Can other nations replicate success of US shale revolution?
Wednesday
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine’s sea drones keeping Russia’s warships at bay
Mar 19
By Straight Arrow News
On March 5, a Ukrainian Magura-V5 unmanned surface vessel (USV), commonly referred to as a sea drone, sank a Russian patrol vessel in the Black Sea. Previously in February, up to three Magura-V5s launched an attack on the landing ship Tsezar Kunikov near the Crimean town of Alupka. These sea drones, developed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and controlled remotely via a satellite link, have the capability to reach the Crimean Peninsula and even the Russian coastline.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan asserts that Ukraine’s successful use of sea drones is diminishing Russia’s ability to reinforce Crimea by sea. According to Zeihan, if this trend continues, Crimea could lose its supply routes, potentially leading to a significant shift in the direction of the war.
Excerpted from Peter’s March 19 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
The Ukrainians have made some huge strides in the maritime theater and have poked some eyebrow-raising holes in Russia’s naval capabilities.
The first thing of note is the sinking of a Russian patrol vessel by Ukrainian drones. This drone strike took place farther east than other attacks, bringing Russian detection capabilities into question.
The second incident was the sinking of a Russian landing ship. This further hampers Russia’s ability to reinforce Crimea and shows just how vulnerable Russian naval assets might be.
These attacks suggest a shift in Ukrainian strategy, targeting Russian naval assets with drones. While the war that on land has been a drawn out series of give and take, the maritime theater is heating up.
Hi, everyone, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from a snowy Colorado morning. There are two recent things that have gone down in the maritime theater in Ukraine that I think are worth stitching together. The first is that around midnight of March 4, the fifth, a patrol vessel Russian patrol vessel, the name escapes me was sunk by a bunch of UAVs. Water drones. Basically, the reason this matters is it happened a lot further away from the places where most of the drones have hit Russian water assets in the past. The Ukrainians really don’t have much of a coastline anymore. It’s really just far western Ukraine, on the west side of the Crimean peninsula. And so when vessels are used to there, the they become in range of these UAV swarms that the Ukraine has been launching with greater frequency. But that’s not where this patrol ship was. It was on the far eastern side of Ukraine near the Kerch Strait bridge. So that’s about 300 miles from any potential launch point. And that meant that UAVs had to cruise by pretty much every naval asset the Russians had in order to get them to where they needed to go. So either they’re getting quieter, or there’s a lot of more holes all along the Russians detection perimeter or both. Also, it’s in the facility, the bridge. So if you want to say that this is a shaping operation, in order to strike the bridge directly, you know, it’s a reasonable concern. The other thing that’s unique is this is a relatively new vessel, a patrol ships are pretty small, but designed for anti insurgency clearly not doing that job very well. And if there is a type of vessel that’s going to be decent at shooting down drones, it’s going to be something like this that’s relatively small in the first place, so we can shoot down into the water. And apparently, none of that worked. And the thing sank, the second vessel to go down went down a couple of weeks ago, I believe it was February 14 15th. And it was landing ship. Now landing ships are used to deliver military cargo to areas that don’t necessarily have excellent port facilities, the idea is you can just kind of pull up to the shore, drop off everything you need, and then take off again, the reason that these are really important in any sort of operation is because it means you’re not beholden to civilian or military infrastructure, you don’t have to wait for a port slot to be available. And if you’re at a port slot, obviously the enemy knows where you are. Also, you know, you’re not talking about things like cranes being required, you can just roll right off. The Russians brought a half a dozen of these into the Black Sea just before the war. This is one of the reasons why the folks the military community were pretty sure the war was going to happen this time. And the Russians began with about a half a dozen in theater, so 12 total. Now this was the fifth one that was sunk it was called the scissor Colton off holidays for pronunciation. Anyway, when the sales are went down, they basically down to 50%. And with that, that means the Russians are dependent on either civilian transports, which do not do well in a war zone at all, or a single thread of supply coming across the Kerch Strait bridge that is now no longer being transported by rail for the most part, mostly by truck. You take these two together, the Russians are losing the ability to reinforce Crimea by the water. And the Ukrainians are demonstrated that they’re able to strike targets in the vicinity of the bridge, which would inhibit the Russian ability to supply by land and of Crimea loses the ability to supply then this war changes very quickly, regardless of what happens with the Ukrainian army and the US Congress. Now, there’s obviously lots lots lots more going on there, and the fog of war remains as ever in place. But it does seem that the Ukrainians have adapted to the lower flows of equipment from the United States by getting more creative with their military tactics, and going after vulnerable targets, in this case, naval assets that no one before the war would have ever thought were the vulnerable side of the Russian war machine. So we’re probably going to see more and more of this going on because while the Ukrainians are having a hard time getting howitzers, they’re having no problem getting jet skis, and basically, they modified jet skis and things like them in order to make these maritime drones. So the pressure on the naval aspect of the Russian assault, as all of a sudden kind of surprisingly emerged as a critical component in the near term. As for what’s going on on land, that is largely a function of the US Congress and we will address that in the next video.
Related
Japan’s navy gets an upgrade
Following their defeat in World War II, the people of Japan pursued a largely pacifist foreign policy. Today, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with near-daily news regarding China’s threatening activities throughout the greater Pacific, the Japanese are reinvesting in military defense and reaffirming their alliances with Pacific partners like Australia and the United States.…
Yesterday
How could RFK Jr. impact 2024 election?
Many Americans speculated about how a potential RFK, Jr. campaign might impact the 2024 elections. While RFK is neither a Democrat nor a Republican, many of his positions favor Donald Trump’s base over Joe Biden’s, particularly his various conspiracy theories on a wide range of subjects. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says that GOP…
Friday
Global warming won’t impact Russian-Chinese shipping
The seas above Russia’s northern coastline are too frozen for shipping, but some have wondered whether global warming might change that in the decades to come. If those seas were to become navigable for commercial shipping, new direct routes between Russia and China could theoretically open up. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan throws more…
Thursday
Can other nations replicate success of US shale revolution?
The “shale revolution” has provided the United States with a bountiful domestic supply of oil. But extracting oil from shale is a highly technical process, and it is also dependent on specific geological formations. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan tackles the question of whether or not other nations might be able to replicate the…
Wednesday
Peace between Israel and Iran, at least for now
A series of recent airstrikes between Israel and Iran inflamed fears of a wider regional war erupting in the Middle East. That concern now seems to have paid off, after third-party countries around the world successfully intervened and talked down military hardliners in both Israel and Iran in order to avoid such an outcome. Israel’s…
Apr 23
Underreported stories from each side
White House considers admitting some Palestinians from Gaza as refugees
15 sources | 14% from the left
Envato
Federal judges toss out a Louisiana congressional map, bringing fresh uncertainty to the future of a House seat
15 sources | 7% from the right
Getty Images
Latest Stories
Dozens arrested at Columbia as NYPD clears Hamilton Hall, encampments
Watch 6:53
1 hr ago
Unmanned aircraft are the future of warfare: Weapon of the week
Watch 3:31
4 hrs ago
Ghostworks’ racing technology could meet the military’s immediate needs
Watch 4:12
4 hrs ago
Boat builders looking for new mission: Weapons and Warfare
Watch 17:24
4 hrs ago
Republicans say Speaker Johnson is not weakened by Democratic support
Watch 2:36
15 hrs ago
Popular Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Republicans unraveling before our very eyes
20 hrs ago
Ruben Navarrette
Action required to combat anti-Jewish sentiment at elite schools
20 hrs ago
Ben Weingarten
College sports is big money but not everyone benefits
Yesterday
Larry Lindsey
Will MAGA GOP remove Speaker Johnson?
Yesterday
David Pakman