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Ukrainians recently launched their largest drone offensives to date against Russian positions, some more than one hundred miles deep into Russian territory. The strikes yet again demonstrate the novel, game-changing power of low-cost, commercially available drone technology in modern warfare.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan argues that we might have hit “a turning point in the war” and predicts that, with further loss of forces, the Russians might be unable to hold even their own domestic empire together. But Zeihan’s focus is not only set on Russia. His observations on drones also have profound implications for any future U.S.-China conflict.
Excerpted from Peter’s Sep. 1 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
While Ukraine being able to strike deeper inside Russia’s border is a significant strategic win, I’m not just up late thinking about the damage they inflicted. As Russia continues to face more and more attacks like this, the ability to defend and uphold its national coherence is now threatened.
Russia is a multi-ethnic empire; it expands and absorbs territories until it reaches defensible natural geographic barriers. The Ukraine War is just another example of this in practice (and success would mean delaying Russia’s demographic collapse). However, as dissent bubbles up amongst these various ethnic groups, what happens if Russia can no longer monitor and put the lid on it immediately? How could it possibly project power outside its borders?
The Russians aren’t the only ones feeling the heat after this drone attack. When a country like Ukraine can practically walk into a Walmart and get what it needs to launch a large-scale assault, that’s one heck of a conversation starter for the Pentagon.
Once the US amasses a – flock – of drones, they’ll have another way to attack the Chinese navy should they need to. The irony is that most drone parts come straight out of China. So the Chinese could stop exporting this stuff and hurt their economy, OR they could continue handing over the very thing that might end them. I’d say that was worth waking up for…
