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A rapidly shifting security environment in Europe leaves Sweden and Finland reconsidering joining NATO, and if they decide to go for it, it’s likely to happen fast. NATO is made up of 30 member countries, including 28 in Europe plus the United States and Canada. Originally formed in the 1950s, it is the foundation of all security planning that matters in the European sphere.
Well, now that all the Europeans are furious with the Russians, we have actually greater tightness among the Europeans, NATO and non-NATO alike, than we have seen in Europe quite literally since the Treaty of Westphalia in the 11th century.
So let’s start with Finland, which earned its independence in the early 1900s and found itself as a young country butting heads with the Soviet superpower.
Stalin ordered an invasion of Finland in the early days of World War II, and the Fins fought the Russians to a standstill. It all was fun and games until the snow melted, and then Stalin launched a second phase of the invasion, and the Fins very quickly sued for peace and gave Stalin everything that he had asked for. And then some.
Ultimately, Finland maintained control of its economic and political systems, but the Soviet Union kept control of security matters including preventing Finland from joining NATO.
While the Russians are nowhere even close to the strength that the Soviet Union had, we now have a Russian system that is acting more aggressively than even Stalin did. So from [the Fins’] point of view, this change in the defensive and offensive posture of the Russian state combined with its lack of capacity provides both the impetus and the willingness of the Fins to consider a shift.
As for Sweden, it used to be a superpower, but that didn’t last.
And in a series of conflicts starting with the 30-years war and ultimately culminating in the Napoleonic wars, the Swedes faced a series of setbacks and strategic defeats until ultimately they retreated back to what we now know as Sweden today.
As you know, the Swedes have gone out of their way to remain neutral.
But once again, the situation has changed. Under the Soviet period, Sweden very nearly got a nuclear deterrent, but the nonproliferation treaty ultimately convinced Sweden that it wasn’t necessary.
But now that the Russians have withdrawn from most strategic arms reduction talks, the Swedes have a very simple choice they have to make. One, do they go nuclear, or, two, do they join the coalition that all of their Nordic and Scandinavian family members are already a part of? Because Iceland, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark–they’re all already in NATO.
If they applied to join, they would be ushered in a matter of days and weeks. We’re gonna know very, very soon, probably before Jun. 1, one way or the other.
