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Incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) are facing off in November in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election. This race will serve as a significant test to determine if a Democratic incumbent can secure victory in a deeply conservative state. Meanwhile, Virginia will hold elections for seats in both houses of the state’s General Assembly, potentially impacting contentious issues like abortion access.
Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti suggests the outcomes of these elections may provide valuable insights into voters’ sentiments regarding former President Donald Trump. Continetti argues these results could shape the political landscape leading up to the next presidential election.
In Virginia, popular Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin aims to win full control of the state legislature. He’s been careful to stress the economy and education in his appeals to voters, and he’s been helped by flawed Democratic candidates. The term-limited Youngkin could use a good election night as a springboard to a presidential or Senate race. But first, he must win.
In Kentucky, Republican State Attorney General Daniel Cameron hopes to unseat incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. Polling for this race has been infrequent and somewhat unreliable. Yet it shows Beshear leading Cameron outside the margin of error.
These warning signs explain why Donald Trump has picked several high-profile fights with pro-life leadership. Trump can see the Republicans have been underperforming since the Supreme Court decision on Roe. He’s triangulating between pro-life leaders and a public wary of outright bans on abortion.
Trump’s bigger problem is that he can’t triangulate from himself. Even if Trump convinces voters that he won’t ban abortion in a second term, he will have to deal with his persistent high negative ratings. And though he’s competitive with Biden in national polls, his gains among minority voters don’t necessarily translate into swing state victories. A good night for Republicans in Virginia and Kentucky would mean that the party can win in a pro-choice environment. But it will still have to deal with independent voters who are allergic to Donald Trump.
