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How a No Labels candidate might affect outcome of 2024 election
Many reformers see an opportunity for a third party presidential candidate. The argument goes like this, America is more polarized than ever. And add on top of that. The most likely matchup in the general election is a rematch of President Joe Biden versus former President Donald Trump. What better time for third party candidate voter disgust at the two stale choices of parties and candidates paves the way for a third alternative that Americans crave to fill this need the group No Labels has stepped in to facilitate such a third party run. They are securing a ballot line in states for such a campaign. And the general speculation is that the ticket will consist of a prominent moderate Democrat and moderate republican names have been floated, including Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Republican former Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland. The reaction to this effort has been twofold. reformers like what they see in the No Labels effort. A candidacy of the center might be able to win in this environment, or at least shake up our politics. On the other side, many establishment Democrats view the No Labels effort as a threat to the Democratic Party. To Joe Biden’s reelection and even to democracy itself. The reformers and establishment Democrats have in common the belief that the No Labels candidates can attract a large share of the popular vote. establishment Democrats, however, also see the effort as taking more votes from the Democratic side. So are they right? Will a no labels presidential ticket gain a large share of the vote? And will it hurt Democrats more than Republicans? First, how well will the new third party ticket do in 2024? The answer is likely not very well. While America has a long history of third party presidential candidates, it also has a strong history of two party dominance. In 2020, Joe Biden and Donald Trump combined to receive over 98% of ballots cast with just a smattering of votes going to the libertarian and Green parties and others. Even in the 2016 election, which some saw as a strong third party turnout, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump received 94% of the vote. The only elections since 1968 that stand out are the first two runs of Ross Perot who received 90% of the vote in 1992 and less than 9% in 1996. In general, third party candidates take a small share of the vote, but even here Parowan no states and receive no Electoral College votes. Further, interest in third parties wanes as Election Day approaches perosa much higher poll numbers early in the race. And in general, voters are more enamored with third parties in the abstract. But once the real election decision is upon them, they returned to the major party candidates. Finally, the emphasis on the difficulty of getting a candidate on the ballot in all 50 states is exaggerated. It is true that it takes a significant amount of money and manpower to qualify for a ballot line in all states. But we saw an effort in the 2012 election called Americans Elect. They went through the work to get a ballot line in all states only to end up not fielding a ticket and the libertarian and Green parties are on the ballot in many states. By itself, the ballot line has not guaranteed their success. The bottom line is that while it is difficult to get on the ballot everywhere. There are many other challenges beyond that to any third party run. Second, with the No Labels effort hurt Democrats more than Republicans. It is impossible to know for sure, but the way it is being pitched it would likely be slightly more attractive to Democratic leaning voters. The core audience for such an effort is college educated centrists. And this group, Democratic leaning voters are more likely than Republicans to favor values such as bipartisanship, non partisanship, and getting along. In this way. This effort looks very different than the runs of Ross Perot, who had a more populous campaign, focusing on trade and other issues of greater interest to blue collar voters. The bottom line is that the No Labels third party effort is not likely to have much of an effect. It is hard to see such a ticket cracking 5% of the vote. And while voters attracted to the ticket might lean slightly democratic, it would only be in the closest of elections that one could imagine no labels affecting the outcome.
Changing speakers isn’t actually going to help Republicans
After three weeks without a speaker and three unsuccessful attempts to secure the required votes for a new one, the U.S. House of Representatives elected a little-known Congressman from Louisiana, Rep. Mike Johnson. But was the decision to elect Rep. Johnson, who leans hard-right and pro-Trump, a wise move for the Republican Party? Straight Arrow
How a No Labels candidate might affect outcome of 2024 election
Amid increasing polarization in the United States and the anticipation of a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, a third-party organization is gaining momentum. The No Labels group has successfully registered 15,000 voters in the pivotal state of Arizona and is on a path to expand its presence to all 50
Voting reforms have minimal partisan impact on electoral turnout
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, politicians are questioning whether certain voting reforms may have impacted the 2020 presidential election. After their 2020 defeat, Republicans have made efforts to reverse an executive order issued by the Biden administration, which aimed to strengthen election accessibility. In a counter move, Democrats have reintroduced their own proposed legislation
Do we need new laws for AI-generated political ads?
It’s the Wild West when it comes to regulating AI-generated political advertising. As new technology explodes, many are questioning whether we need more oversight of ads made with artificial intelligence. Right now, campaign ads don’t have to disclose if they were created or manipulated by AI, and some Democratic lawmakers are hoping to change that.
Republican demands for changes to presidential debates warranted
The Republican National Committee (RNC) voted to leave the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) in 2022 due to what it perceived as biases against its party. Some critics of the RNC decision believe Republican candidates are simply afraid of tough questions and would rather see Fox News hosts as moderators. Straight Arrow News contributor John
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