The debate over American military assistance to Ukraine has lost touch with reality. The argument in Washington is less about Ukraine’s defense and America’s place in the world than about domestic politics ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The Ukrainian people had been drafted into America’s culture war, with potentially terrible consequences for both nations and the world. No one should have any illusions about what will happen next. If America support for Ukraine comes to an end. cutting off aid to Ukraine will not reduce violence or lessen the threat to America. It will amplify the carnage it will enhance the risk. China’s Xi Jinping, Iran Ali Khamenei, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and countless other murderers, thugs and genociders would be emboldened out of ignorance, indifference or malice. A great number of Americans seem to believe that our assistance to Ukraine is what fuels this conflict. They seem to believe that Vladimir Putin would like nothing more for war in Ukraine to end he does not. On the contrary, the Russian dictator gives every indication that he is mobilizing for years of aggression, not only against Ukraine, but also against America and the West.

If Putin no longer feels the bite of the Ukrainian army, he will be free to maneuver, he will probe for weaknesses in his near abroad and redeploy forces from Ukraine to build situations of strength elsewhere. Though the Russians may not be able to take Kyiv they certainly will gain territory if Ukraine lacks American aid. Putin may freeze the conflict in Ukraine and pursue his interests in the Caucasus and in Central Asia, while saber rattling against NATO. According to the head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, Eastern Europe has three years to prepare for war with Russia.

It did not have to be this way. President Biden may say that America will back Ukraine for as long as it takes, but he missed his chance to provide Ukraine with whatever it takes to rollback Putin’s armies. The result is a brutal war of position in Europe, a political stalemate in the United States and an empowered Russia.

Abandoning Ukraine to the Russian bear would be a catastrophe of greater magnitude than the retreat from Afghanistan in 2021. The Afghan route damaged America’s credibility, defeated Ukraine would shake the foundations of the Transatlantic Alliance and NATO and greenlight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. incompetence in Afghanistan pulled Biden’s approval ratings underwater. Losing two wars in one term would doom his reelection. The Taliban for the moment seem to be limiting their malign behavior to the Afghan people and to Pakistan. Vladimir Putin’s ambitions and those of his Chinese patron, our global opponents of aid to Ukraine evade the reality of Putin’s intent for more than a decade, first in the Republic of Georgia than in Crimea and the Donbass in Syria, and in the rest of Ukraine, Putin has sought to resurrect the Soviet empire. He pursued his objective unencumbered until he met resistance in the battle for Keith. If America abandons the fight for freedom in Ukraine, Putin won’t change. He won’t falter. He won’t stop, and the danger in which we will find ourselves will be matched only by our dishonor.