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Larry Lindsey

President & CEO, The Lindsey Group

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Opinion

Betting markets indicate Trump indictment was no surprise

Jun 19, 2023

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Larry Lindsey

President & CEO, The Lindsey Group

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Will former President Donald Trump’s 37-count federal indictment hurt his standing with Republican voters and their willingness to trust him again in the White House? Polls show that there’s little to no change in Trump’s standing in the GOP because Republican voters were not very surprised by the news.

Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey argues the betting markets were also not at all surprised by the indictment, as the odds both before and after the indictment were barely changed.

If you look at the political betting markets, it was hardly greeted with a yawn. Now, you got to remember, with betting markets, you’re not expressing your opinion just sort of off the top of your head; you’re actually putting up cash, and sometimes real cash. Most of the betting markets for politics actually are in London, England, and thousands and thousands of pounds are wagered on American elections, on just about anything.

So before the indictment was rumored Trump had a 42.3% chance of winning the presidency, assuming he got the Republican nomination. On Sunday, after all the talk shows, that was down to 41.7%. Meanwhile, Biden’s chances went from 53.8%, assuming he was the nominee, to 54.4%. That’s a net swing in odds of 0.6%. That’s hardly an earthquake. Remember, these are the odds, not just simply a poll — a very, very tiny change.

Now, it was even a little bit stranger because everyone thought that people’s parties were rallying behind them. Yet, the effect on Trump’s nomination chances were [sic] to reduce them by 1.1%, more than his general election chances. Biden also slipped because apparently the Biden campaign is based on the assumption Trump is going to be the nominee, and his odds slipped 0.7% of getting the nomination. Again, the effects within the two parties were more than the two-party race for November, at least as far as the bookmakers went.


One other point to make is that Florida Governor DeSantis is now rated as a 63.2% chance of winning in November, assuming he’s the Republican nominee. That was essentially unchanged before and after the Trump indictments. So it was all about Trump and not about party. Again, the betting markets weren’t surprised.

Well, with all the hubbub that there was about the indictment of former President Trump, if you’d had arrived to Mars, you would think a political earthquake had occurred. I mean, here’s a former president charged with 37 counts, including espionage, who could face 400 years in jail. That’s got to be a major event, a major political earthquake for the American political scene. Didn’t turn out that way. If you look at the political betting markets, it was hardly greeted with a yawn. Now, you got to remember, with betting markets, you’re not expressing your opinion, just sort of off the top of your head, you’re actually putting up cash, and sometimes real cash. Most of the betting markets for politics, actually are in London, England and 1000s and 1000s of pounds are wagered on American elections on just about anything. So before the indictment was rumored Trump had a 42.3% chance of winning the presidency, assuming he got the Republican nomination. On Sunday, after all the talk shows that was down to 41.7%. Meanwhile, Biden’s chances went from 53.8%. If assuming he was the nominee, to 54.4%. That’s a net swing and odds of six tenths of 1%. That’s hardly an earthquake. Remember, these are the odds, not just simply a poll, very, very tiny change. Now, it was even a little bit stranger because everyone thought that people’s parties were rallying behind them. Yet, the effect on Trump’s nomination chances were to reduce them by 1.1%. More than his general election chances. Biden also slipped Because apparently, the Biden campaign is based on the assumption Trump is going to be the nominee, and his odds slipped seven tenths of a percent of getting the nomination. Again, the effects within the two parties were more than the two party race for November, at least as far as the bookmakers went. One other point to make is that Florida Governor DeSantis is now rated have a 63.2% chance of winning in November, assuming he’s the Republican nominee. That was essentially unchanged before and after the Trump indictments. So it was all about Trump and not about party. Well, again, the betting markets weren’t surprised. Let’s look at actually what happened to understand why. First, is anyone really surprised that Trump is a naughty boy? Or that he enjoys playing that role? Now, that’s not a surprise. Or second, that it was Trump’s ego and bragging, good constituted the strongest evidence against them. He was bragging on tape about having classified documents. I mean, no defense lawyer would ever tell his client to do that. But it was Trump’s ego. That tripped him up. Any surprise? I don’t think so. Oh, so it would strike most people if the DOJ the Department of Justice went too far. I mean, espionage. Really? Who exactly was Trump spying for? Except for his own ego? No, there was no spying going on. True. It comes under the Espionage Act. But that just shows how Orwellian the expansion of crimes have become in the US. And finally, it’s pretty obvious that there’s no level playing field here. Trump clearly got different treatment than Hillary Clinton got, who one might remember had a computer in her private residence full of classified documents, or President Biden, who’s had his documents found in seven different places and many more documents than Trump ever had. Not to mention his son Hunter, whose IRS investigation has now been going on for five years, and DOJ just ordered the IRS to get rid of all the people who were On the case, no, there’s no surprise here either. Trump is Trump and the excesses of the Biden administration continue to be the excesses of the Biden administration. No one is surprised. The betting markets didn’t change. Let’s face it, the details of this whole thing are really sorted. But sadly, they aren’t a surprise. This is the state in which American politics now finds itself. 

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