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Will former President Donald Trump’s 37-count federal indictment hurt his standing with Republican voters and their willingness to trust him again in the White House? Polls show that there’s little to no change in Trump’s standing in the GOP because Republican voters were not very surprised by the news.
Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey argues the betting markets were also not at all surprised by the indictment, as the odds both before and after the indictment were barely changed.
If you look at the political betting markets, it was hardly greeted with a yawn. Now, you got to remember, with betting markets, you’re not expressing your opinion just sort of off the top of your head; you’re actually putting up cash, and sometimes real cash. Most of the betting markets for politics actually are in London, England, and thousands and thousands of pounds are wagered on American elections, on just about anything.
So before the indictment was rumored Trump had a 42.3% chance of winning the presidency, assuming he got the Republican nomination. On Sunday, after all the talk shows, that was down to 41.7%. Meanwhile, Biden’s chances went from 53.8%, assuming he was the nominee, to 54.4%. That’s a net swing in odds of 0.6%. That’s hardly an earthquake. Remember, these are the odds, not just simply a poll — a very, very tiny change.
Now, it was even a little bit stranger because everyone thought that people’s parties were rallying behind them. Yet, the effect on Trump’s nomination chances were [sic] to reduce them by 1.1%, more than his general election chances. Biden also slipped because apparently the Biden campaign is based on the assumption Trump is going to be the nominee, and his odds slipped 0.7% of getting the nomination. Again, the effects within the two parties were more than the two-party race for November, at least as far as the bookmakers went.
One other point to make is that Florida Governor DeSantis is now rated as a 63.2% chance of winning in November, assuming he’s the Republican nominee. That was essentially unchanged before and after the Trump indictments. So it was all about Trump and not about party. Again, the betting markets weren’t surprised.
