Everyone’s concerned about the state of the labor market. After all, that’s where we get our jobs that pay our bills. The news right now is very good. There were expectations that the February employment report would be a surprise to the downside, showing softening in the economy. January’s number was considered to be aberrantly. High. Well, they did cut January’s number to a mere 229,000 jobs created. But that was nothing more than the average of the last 12 months hardly weak. And the February number was even higher 275,000 jobs. Job creation is now growing at a rate that’s twice the rate of growth of the civilian labor force. If the number of war bodies coming in, is swamped by the number of jobs by a factor of two to one, you know, you’ve got a tight labor market situation. Then came the question about aren’t these part time jobs? Well, it turns out there’s two types of part time jobs. One is people who are put on part time, because of slack economic conditions for various economic reasons in the company. Well, the number of people who are on part time work, because the businesses didn’t have enough business actually dropped by 46,000. part timers who are part time by choice, rose by 158,000, a lot of people don’t want full time jobs. So we now have a labor market where people can work part time or full time of their choosing. And there is no real pressure on people being forced to work part time, because the economy is weak. The rate of unemployment did tick up from three, seven to three, nine. But that was almost entirely due to young people dropping out of the labor force, or choosing not to work for some reason, the number of people under 25, who are reported working, dropped 466,000. But the number of people over 25, who are working Rose 328,000. If you have a lot of younger, mostly part time workers dropping out perhaps because they went back to school, but you have solid growth of employment for middle aged people. That’s another sign of a very strong economy in a tight labor market. Total payrolls in February rose six tenths of percent month over month. That’s a 7.4% annual rate of growth, very, very strong, and certainly not one consistent with a 2% inflation rate. Not only that, the people who are gaining jobs are the people who do the work and not the people who supervise them, the number of supervisors employed and the pay, they got declined. On the other hand, of what they call production and non supervisory workers rose a full half percent in the goods sector, and two tenths of a percent in the services sector. Looking at that part of the composition of the labor force, total compensation Rose 1.3% in a single month for production and non supervisory workers. In some we have a very solid labor market. There aren’t any signs of it falling apart. People say it’s softening Well, maybe it’s softening from an extremely hot pace to a merely very warm pace. But it’s enough to provide everyone jobs, everyone incomes and plenty of money to be spent going forward. Fortunately, we have a tight labor market. I think if the Fed ends up cutting rates, what you’ll see is a situation even get getting tighter, and possibly the RE imposition of inflation on the economy. You can’t have more jobs than you have people willing to do the work that pushes up wages and it pushes up prices. So we should celebrate the tight labor market and not try and make it even tighter by cutting interest rates further.
Larry Lindsey
President & CEO, The Lindsey Group
Commentary
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Is the US looking for a war?
6 hrs ago
Peter Zeihan
How future generations could shift US support for Israel
Yesterday
Peter Zeihan
Why election of European Commission president is so important
Wednesday
Peter Zeihan
‘Both completely corrupt’: What Americans think of Biden, Trump
Tuesday
Dr. Frank Luntz
Celebrate tight labor market, but don’t cut interest rates
Larry Lindsey
President & CEO, The Lindsey Group
By Straight Arrow News
While President Joe Biden has been celebrating U.S. economic success, many Americans are still unhappy about the economy. So who’s right? The most recent jobs report for February showed that while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%, job gains were higher than expected, with the total coming in at 275,000 versus the expected increase of 200,000. This data suggests there has been confusing growth of both jobs and unemployment at the same time.
Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey takes a closer look at the latest employment report numbers, attempting to clarify some of the data. He highlights the rosy job creation scenario of the part-timers and how these workers affect the employment situation.
Then came the question about, ‘Aren’t these part-time jobs?’ Well, it turns out there are two types of part-time jobs. One is people who are put on part-time because of slack economic conditions for various economic reasons in the company. Well, the number of people who are on part-time work because the businesses didn’t have enough business actually dropped by 46,000. Part-timers who are part-time by choice rose by 158,000. A lot of people don’t want full-time jobs. So we now have a labor market where people can work part-time or full-time of their choosing, and there is no real pressure on people being forced to work part-time because the economy is weak.
The rate of unemployment did tick up from 3.7% to 3.9% but that was almost entirely due to young people dropping out of the labor force or choosing not to work for some reason. The number of people under 25 who are reported working dropped 466,000. But the number of people over 25 who are working rose 328,000. If you have a lot of younger, mostly part-time workers dropping out, perhaps because they went back to school, but you have solid growth of employment for middle-aged people, that’s another sign of a very strong economy in a tight labor market.
Everyone’s concerned about the state of the labor market. After all, that’s where we get our jobs that pay our bills. The news right now is very good. There were expectations that the February employment report would be a surprise to the downside, showing softening in the economy. January’s number was considered to be aberrantly. High. Well, they did cut January’s number to a mere 229,000 jobs created. But that was nothing more than the average of the last 12 months hardly weak. And the February number was even higher 275,000 jobs. Job creation is now growing at a rate that’s twice the rate of growth of the civilian labor force. If the number of war bodies coming in, is swamped by the number of jobs by a factor of two to one, you know, you’ve got a tight labor market situation. Then came the question about aren’t these part time jobs? Well, it turns out there’s two types of part time jobs. One is people who are put on part time, because of slack economic conditions for various economic reasons in the company. Well, the number of people who are on part time work, because the businesses didn’t have enough business actually dropped by 46,000. part timers who are part time by choice, rose by 158,000, a lot of people don’t want full time jobs. So we now have a labor market where people can work part time or full time of their choosing. And there is no real pressure on people being forced to work part time, because the economy is weak. The rate of unemployment did tick up from three, seven to three, nine. But that was almost entirely due to young people dropping out of the labor force, or choosing not to work for some reason, the number of people under 25, who are reported working, dropped 466,000. But the number of people over 25, who are working Rose 328,000. If you have a lot of younger, mostly part time workers dropping out perhaps because they went back to school, but you have solid growth of employment for middle aged people. That’s another sign of a very strong economy in a tight labor market. Total payrolls in February rose six tenths of percent month over month. That’s a 7.4% annual rate of growth, very, very strong, and certainly not one consistent with a 2% inflation rate. Not only that, the people who are gaining jobs are the people who do the work and not the people who supervise them, the number of supervisors employed and the pay, they got declined. On the other hand, of what they call production and non supervisory workers rose a full half percent in the goods sector, and two tenths of a percent in the services sector. Looking at that part of the composition of the labor force, total compensation Rose 1.3% in a single month for production and non supervisory workers. In some we have a very solid labor market. There aren’t any signs of it falling apart. People say it’s softening Well, maybe it’s softening from an extremely hot pace to a merely very warm pace. But it’s enough to provide everyone jobs, everyone incomes and plenty of money to be spent going forward. Fortunately, we have a tight labor market. I think if the Fed ends up cutting rates, what you’ll see is a situation even get getting tighter, and possibly the RE imposition of inflation on the economy. You can’t have more jobs than you have people willing to do the work that pushes up wages and it pushes up prices. So we should celebrate the tight labor market and not try and make it even tighter by cutting interest rates further.
Election 2024 will boil down to the Great Lakes states
Pollsters and pundits have been engaged in a long debate about how Biden or Trump might win the 2024 election, with much of their focus spent on the “swing state” electoral battlegrounds. While the winners of Alabama or California may be obvious, for instance, who wins Pennsylvania is a more difficult question. Watch the above…
Jun 10
Why the Fed should consider Theory of Reflexivity when fixing policy
The Theory of Reflexivity, often used in the context of economics and financial markets, implies that investors don’t base their decisions on reality but on their perceptions of reality. This creates a feedback loop where investors’ perceptions influence economic fundamentals, which in turn alter investor perceptions. Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor…
Jun 3
Federal Reserve surpassed its own wildest expectations
On May 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the most current producer price index (PPI) report, which showed an increase of 0.5% month-over-month in April. After the report’s release, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell said that while he believes the current policy rate is restrictive by many measures, the Fed needs…
May 20
Polls give slight advantage to Trump in Electoral College
With the U.S. general election only six months away, leading candidates President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appear to be engaged in a very close contest. In their 2020 race, the winner of the Electoral College was ultimately determined by a relative handful of voters in just a few swing states, even though…
May 13
College sports is big money but not everyone benefits
March Madness has wrapped up and Caitlin Clark has emerged as a household name as well as a wealthy student athlete. Earning over $3 million throughout her college career, her success stands in stark contrast to the previous notion that collegiate athletes shouldn’t earn anything beyond their scholarship. Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey examines…
Apr 29
Underreported stories from each side
Group accuses Pa. teachers union of illegally using money to back Shapiro’s 2022 campaign
8 sources | 0% from the left
Getty Images
Some House Republicans slam Vance as Trump’s VP pick: ‘The worst choice’
8 sources | 0% from the right
Reuters
Latest Stories
Congress still trying to figure out how to reduce wasteful military spending
Watch 2:29
2 hrs ago
US Navy, Air Force making waves with new weapons at RIMPAC
Watch 6:03
2 hrs ago
Israeli PM Netanyahu meets with Trump at Mar-a-Lago
Watch 2:54
2 hrs ago
Growing US nuclear power resurgence reaches the nation’s heartland
Watch 1:19
2 hrs ago
Beer from the sun, other solar thermal projects get government funding
Watch 2:04
2 hrs ago
Popular Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Trump has an excellent opportunity with Black voters
7 hrs ago
Star Parker
Don’t fall for GOP’s cheap racist attacks on Kamala Harris
8 hrs ago
Dr. Rashad Richey
Americans must reject Trump to defend our democracy
Yesterday
Jordan Reid
Why all the changes in European parliamentary governments?
Wednesday
Newt Gingrich